Assessing Armenia’s post-war election

- Advertisement -

Against a backdrop of profound political polarization and deep division, Armenian voters went to the polls on June 20 to elect a new parliament.  With the return of former President Robert Kocharian as the frontrunner of the opposition’s attempt to unseat Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, the election was very much defined by a contest of personalities rather than any real competition of policies.  For the Armenian electorate, it was also a choice between an appeal to the authoritarian “strong man” leadership of the past, as embodied by Kocharian and the opposition, versus continued confidence in the democratic reforms of the Pashinyan government.  

Yet, despite expectations for an especially close and competitive contest, most observers were surprised by the depth and degree of victory for the incumbent government, however.  An additional surprise was seen in both the over-confidence of the opposition and the over-stated vulnerability of the government.  

But such surprise was justified, as this was an early election conducted in a delicate and difficult period of post-war uncertainty and instability.  The Pashinyan government was facing a contest in unchartered political territory, as the unexpected defeat in the 44-war for Nagorno Karabakh with neighboring Azerbaijan in late 2020 only deepened expectations of the defeat and demise of Pashinyan and his government.  

An Extraordinary Election in Many Ways

This early election was extraordinary for several reasons well beyond its timing.  First, this contest represented a desperate attempt at a political comeback by the “old guard” of Armenian politics.  Since the ascendence of Pashinyan to power as the leader of a rare victory of non-violent “people power” in the country’s “Velvet Revolution” of 2018, a large and disparate segment of former officials and ousted political leaders coalesced around their opposition to an embattled Pashinyan government.  

But in a combination of political arrogance and personal argument, the opposition camp was dangerously divided into four competing parties and factions, with three former Armenian presidents competing against each other as much as challenging the government.  In fact, this personality-driven fragmentation of the opposition only diluted and divided the anti-government electorate.  And with former presidents Levon Ter Petrosian, Serzh Sarsgyan and Kocharian failing to unite or even cooperate, the opposition only magnified its own weak appeal and discredited standing.

The election was also significant for a second reason, rooted in the fact that this free and fair election was not only a back-to-back achievement that further built on the impressive election of 2018, but was also the source for a rare degree of legitimacy, which stands out as an especially rare commodity in the South Caucasus. 

As an example of renewed legitimacy, the election was further able to demonstrate that political stability and democratic resiliency was able to overcome post-war insecurity in Armenia.  In this context, the reelection of Pashinyan and his party was more than simply a fresh mandate for the incumbent, but also a vindication and victory of Armenia’s institutional democracy.

Challenges Remain

Beyond the immediate democratic dividends from this post-war election, challenges and concerns remain.  More specifically, as important as this free and fair election was, it is not enough to resolve the deeper deficiencies and shortcomings impeding the system of governance in Armenia.  For one, political polarization is only likely to linger, with the parliament as the new arena for confrontation between the small opposition and the government.  This also suggests an obstructionist partisan strategy by the opposition to only sustain its challenge and seek to undermine the government and any and all elements of its legislative program.

At the same time, another critical concern stems from the dangerous temptation of the reelected Pashinyan government to seek revenge or retribution, which would offer a particularly destructive and divisive period of “vendetta politics.”  Such a scenario is also compounded by Pashinyan’s record of an emotional, impulsive and reckless style of leadership, which also does little to inspire confidence in his capacity for concession and compromise as essential components of truly democratic governance. 

Thus, despite the notable affirmation of Armenia’s democratic resilience, this recent election is only the first step in a much more daunting and difficult path to sustainable post-war stability and durable institutional democracy.  

- Advertisement -

Subscribe to our newsletter

Latest

Tariff Trouble in Trump Town

President Trump has had many a cartoon about him...

Global reaction to Trump tariffs only reinforces his use of this tired and risky strategy

True to form, U.S. President Donald Trump disrupted global...

The New Face of an Old Enemy: The renewed dangers of ISIS and al-Qaeda

A dangerous cocktail of indifference and complacency enabled al-Qaeda...

EU-Central Asia Civil Society Forum enhances regional cooperation, sustainable development

Almaty, the largest city and former capital of Kazakhstan,...

Don't miss

Tariff Trouble in Trump Town

President Trump has had many a cartoon about him...

Global reaction to Trump tariffs only reinforces his use of this tired and risky strategy

True to form, U.S. President Donald Trump disrupted global...

The New Face of an Old Enemy: The renewed dangers of ISIS and al-Qaeda

A dangerous cocktail of indifference and complacency enabled al-Qaeda...

EU-Central Asia Civil Society Forum enhances regional cooperation, sustainable development

Almaty, the largest city and former capital of Kazakhstan,...

Tariff Trouble in Trump Town

President Trump has had many a cartoon about him as a child throwing toys and anything to hand out of the playpen. Now, of...

Global reaction to Trump tariffs only reinforces his use of this tired and risky strategy

True to form, U.S. President Donald Trump disrupted global markets with a three-day surge of tariff announcements, border security negotiations and ultimately a 30-day...

The New Face of an Old Enemy: The renewed dangers of ISIS and al-Qaeda

A dangerous cocktail of indifference and complacency enabled al-Qaeda to evolve from a shadowy fringe network in the early 1990s into one of the...

Donald Trump is inaugurated amidst promises of security, stability and prosperity

After storming a frigid Washington D.C. during his extended inauguration festivities on January 20, Donald J Trump, America’s 47th and 45th President, launched a...

The heat is on Trump’s fossil fuel push, climate change pushback

2024 has officially been confirmed as the warmest year on record, with global temperatures surpassing the 1.5°C threshold mentioned in the Paris Agreement, Alberto...

The Biden administration’s parting gift to Russia: Still more sanctions

Clearly working overtime to underscore the Biden administration’s desire to inflict maximum economic pain on Moscow and its coterie of Ukraine invasion supporters outside...

Undeclared “open season” on energy infrastructure in Europe

Russia is claiming it has shot down nine Ukrainian drones that tried to attack the TurkStream pipeline, which carries Russian gas to Europe through...

Righteous indignation over Maduro’s inauguration unlikely to change Venezuela’s dark reality

President Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela was sworn in on January 10 for his third six-year term. Promising that his third term would be one...