Tuesday, October 3, 2023
 
 

France scores victory on Enlargement rules

Have the Western Balkans’ Enlargement plans been derailed?

- Advertisement -

The EU Commission released new proposed rules on February 5 which substantially modify the current Enlargement process but also allow EU member states to stop any accession aspirant seen as unreliable in accession negotiations or even backsliding on reforms.
This is a substantial victory for French President Emmanuel Macron who froze the accession plans of Albania and North Macedonia last October in order to reform the process; it also underscores France’s drive to take control of major EU political developments from Germany, after Brexit.  It remains to be seen if the new procedures will serve to unblock the accession pathway for Albania and North Macedonia which many observers feel is possible at upcoming EU Summits that focus on the subject.
Political repercussions in Tirana and especially Skopje, in the middle of an election campaign, are still unfolding.
A more dynamic and political accession process
Presenting the Commission’s proposal at a press conference February 5, Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement Oliver Varhelyi said, “the whole process needs to be more credible, more predictable, more dynamic and more political.” Varhelyi also asserted that the purpose of the proposal is to re-establish the credible EU perspective for the Western Balkans.
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said February 5 the proposal constituted a “good message” to North Macedonia and Albania, which were both massively disappointed when they were turned down for opening talks last October, and elections were quickly called in North Macedonia in response, to be held in April 2020. “EU Enlargement is a WIN-WIN situation,” von der Leyen tweeted.
Geopolitics versus reform
In the EU’s new post-Brexit reality, some member states are concerned that if the EU doesn’t offer a clear path towards accession, the countries in the Balkan region could reverse course and seek better relations and strategic ties with Russia, Turkey, or China, right in the EU’s backyard. Despite this unsettled background, some member states want to slow any EU expansion for those aspirant countries that may not be ready to take on full commitments on such issues as corruption and the rule of law, even though it has been clearly demonstrated that EU membership in itself does not guarantee sustained progress on these concerns.
What’s inside
The Commission’s new proposals are still subject to debate and potential reformulation.
The proposed plan is to be discussed by EU member states to have it prepared for formal adoption at a Brussels summit in March, ahead of the Zagreb summit with Western Balkan leaders on May 6-7, a key agenda item of the current Croatian EU Presidency (Croatia was the last new country to join the EU, back in 2013).
As currently presented, the proposals do not apply to ongoing accession talks with Serbia and Montenegro, but those countries may be given an opt-in choice if they so desire and attractive economic incentives to do so are planned.
Late last year nine EU countries (Austria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland and Slovenia) responded to France’s earlier written proposals to overhaul the existing process, arguing that North Macedonia and Albania needed to get the green light by March 2020 even if the rules were under review, essentially undercutting France’s key strategic objective of requiring deep structural reforms in the aspirant countries upfront.  From the new document, it appears the Commission has ruled in France’s favour and ignored the major nine-country attempt to undercut Paris.
In the draft document, titled “Enhancing The Accession Process — A Credible EU Perspective for The Western Balkans,” the Commission proposes EU member states “contribute more systematically to the accession process, including via monitoring on the ground through their experts, through direct contributions to the annual reports, and through sectoral expertise.”
“The Member States will also have the opportunity to review and monitor overall progress more regularly,” the draft states.
Organisationally, to inject more dynamism into the negotiations, the Commission plans to “cluster” the different negotiating chapters into six groups, with the option for countries to open negotiations in different policy areas simultaneously and to close reforms in different chapters within one year.
The proposal is divided into four sections covering these core issues:

  1. More credibility;
  2. A stronger political steer;
  3. A more dynamic process;
  4. Predictability, positive and negative conditionality

Ultimately the document’s final section is the “big stick” in this reform proposal, as anyone who witnessed “conditionality” in the Eurozone financial crisis can attest.
Provisions are included that will allow the accession process to be slowed or suspended if an accession aspirant country’s reform performance falters, and rule-of-law issues are to take centre stage, a value-laden term often used by sceptics to denigrate the democratic character of the Western Balkan nations.
France is said to be insisting that viable procedures for “reversibility” are built-in to the new procedures, which if agreed, may allow Macron enough flexibility to approve starting talks with Tirana and Skopje in Zagreb.
Entire text available here:
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_20_181
Aspirant countries reactions muted so far
So far both Albania and North Macedonia have taken the high road in their reactions to the announcement of the new accession procedures they will have to navigate.
In particular, North Macedonia’s government will be facing a significant challenge in April elections from Eurosceptic opponents, who argue Skopje was betrayed by the EU despite meeting demands from Brussels, including changing its name to end North Macedonia’s longstanding Name Dispute with Greece in 2018.  Clearly, these new Commission proposals will not help defang the Eurosceptics. Foreign Minister Nikola Dimitrov nonetheless reacted positively on Twitter:
“The accession process is about a positive transformation. More benefits for reformers and stronger penalties for backsliders based on a credible assessment is a good thing. The opening of the long-awaited accession talks with North Macedonia within a renewed process will be a double success.”
The government in Tirana issued a non-descript endorsement of the new proposals, but one Tweet from an Albanian journalist was perhaps more informative:
“How many member states would #EU have today if they had to fulfil the criteria from the new methodology?” #missionimpossible.

- Advertisement -

Subscribe to our newsletter

Co-founder and Executive Director for Global Economics and Southeast Europe at NE Global Media.  Former US diplomat with previous assignments in Eastern Europe, the UN, SE Asia, Greece, across the Balkans, as well as Washington DC.

Latest

Iran protesters mark anniversary of “Bloody Friday”

Residents in the southeastern Iranian province of Sistan and...

US announces Israel’s acceptance into the Visa Waiver Program

Israeli citizens will be allowed visa-free entry into the...

UN General Assembly 2023: More progress urgently needed on Sustainable Development Goals

The 78th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) kicked off...

Don't miss

Iran protesters mark anniversary of “Bloody Friday”

Residents in the southeastern Iranian province of Sistan and...

US announces Israel’s acceptance into the Visa Waiver Program

Israeli citizens will be allowed visa-free entry into the...

UN General Assembly 2023: More progress urgently needed on Sustainable Development Goals

The 78th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) kicked off...

Europe’s lawmakers see opportunity for regime change a year after Iran’s latest uprising

On September 21, representatives of various political groups held...

UN General Assembly 2023: More progress urgently needed on Sustainable Development Goals

The 78th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) kicked off in New York as planned on September 18, with global attention focused on the so-called...

How countries prepare for population growth and decline

Early this year, India surpassed China as the most populous country in the world, with the latter having 850,000 fewer people by the end...

Central Asia’s leaders get into specifics on trade-boosting initiatives

In the collective daydreams of Central Asian presidents, there is no end to the possibilities for regional integration.The ideas came thick and fast at...

US Special Representative for Ukraine’s Economic Recovery announced

President Joe Biden announced on September 14 the appointment of Penny Pritzker as the US Special Representative for Ukraine’s Economic Recovery.In this role, she...

Domestic operatives carried out cyberattacks on Iranian regime websites

Treadstone 71, a provider of cyber security consulting and training services, has published a new report on highly-publicized breaches of Iranian government websites and...

With Armenia defeated tensions between Yerevan and Russia reach a turning point

Relations between Armenia and its traditional strategic partner Russia are deteriorating fast. With Yerevan's fundamental defeat in Nagorno-Karabakh - the 30-year-old Moscow-backed separatist region...

Nairobi Declaration calls for global tax on fossil fuel trade, maritime transport, aviation

As the curtains came down at the Africa Climate Summit (ACS23), heads of state and government adopted the Nairobi Declaration, calling on world leaders...

What’s the end game for the military men seizing power in West Africa?

As socio-economic problems and the inefficiency of civilian governments in the region have made recent coups popular, coup makers are eventually going to become...