Monday, September 25, 2023
 
 

Anti-OPEC Trump wild card for oil prices

Will push US oil projects, shale, gas

- Advertisement -

Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election means his administration is likely to focus on domestic oil projects, leading to a prolonged period of lower oil prices.

“Most likely under a Trump administration there will be less regulation,” Fadel Gheit, a senior energy analyst at Oppenheimer in New York, told New Europe by phone on November 9, adding that the oil industry is very heavily regulated in the US, including environmental impact laws.

“For all practical purposes, less regulation, faster growing economy will definitely help oil prices. But at the end of the day, if OPEC has overproduction no matter what happens in this country is really not going to have a meaningful impact on prices or direction of prices in the next few months,” Gheit said. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is set to meet on November 30 to approve a plan to cap the group’s production to between 32.5-33 million barrels a day.

Trump favours boosting shale production in the US. “Stronger support of US shale oil and gas may impact OPEC and the price of oil – not only he is hostile to OPEC, but his actions will increase US shale oil and gas production, prolonging the glut and keeping prices down,” Cyprus Natural Hydrocarbons Company CEO Charles Ellinas told New Europe on November 10.

“Trump will primarily concentrate on US issues, such as abandoning the Clean Power Plan to boost coal at the expense of renewables, cut federal regulations to the benefit of oil, gas and coal, withdraw from or limit support of the Paris Agreement, reverse internal energy and environmental priorities, and generally boost oil, gas and coal within the US,” Ellinas said.

Regarding Trump’s foreign policy, Ellinas said the new US president might take a tougher line against the Iran deal, which could influence development of Iran’s oil and gas.

“The Iranians will be in their best behaviour going forward,” Gheit agreed. “Obama is a man of peace. Not Donald Trump. Because he made some outrageous statement during the campaign, people are concerned that he will use a nuclear weapon. Like that crazy ‘little kid’ in Korea, if he doesn’t behave, I would not rule out that Trump would drop a bomb on him,” Gheit said, referring to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

Gheit said Trump would also probably approve the Keystone XL pipeline. “Most likely the pipeline from Canada will go through,” he said. “If the US becomes a conduit to Canadian oil export through the pipeline going into the US that will definitely level the plain field. It will add more pressure obviously on OPEC because now North American oil will be able to go anywhere in the world,” Gheit said, reminding that the US lifted the export ban last year.

“You will see more acceleration of projects that have been delayed, postponed or cancelled because of environmental opposition,” Gheit said, adding that “drill, baby, drill,” was back on the table. He noted that since Republicans have the majority in Congress as well as in the Senate, Trump would control the direction of the country more than US President Barack Obama.

follow on twitter @energyinsider

- Advertisement -

Subscribe to our newsletter

Co-founder / Director of Energy & Climate Policy and Security at NE Global Media

Latest

UN General Assembly 2023: More progress urgently needed on Sustainable Development Goals

The 78th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) kicked off...

Europe’s lawmakers see opportunity for regime change a year after Iran’s latest uprising

On September 21, representatives of various political groups held...

How countries prepare for population growth and decline

Early this year, India surpassed China as the most...

Interest surges in Turkmen gas

Turkmenistan's huge gas reserves have been generating considerable interest...

Don't miss

UN General Assembly 2023: More progress urgently needed on Sustainable Development Goals

The 78th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) kicked off...

Europe’s lawmakers see opportunity for regime change a year after Iran’s latest uprising

On September 21, representatives of various political groups held...

How countries prepare for population growth and decline

Early this year, India surpassed China as the most...

Interest surges in Turkmen gas

Turkmenistan's huge gas reserves have been generating considerable interest...

European aviation industry embraces new jet fuel regulation

The European Parliament on September 13 approved a new...

Interest surges in Turkmen gas

Turkmenistan's huge gas reserves have been generating considerable interest from potential importers following Ashgabat's announcement in late July that it is open to the development...

European aviation industry embraces new jet fuel regulation

The European Parliament on September 13 approved a new law to increase the uptake of sustainable fuels, such as advanced biofuels or hydrogen, in...

US Special Representative for Ukraine’s Economic Recovery announced

President Joe Biden announced on September 14 the appointment of Penny Pritzker as the US Special Representative for Ukraine’s Economic Recovery.In this role, she...

Nairobi Declaration calls for global tax on fossil fuel trade, maritime transport, aviation

As the curtains came down at the Africa Climate Summit (ACS23), heads of state and government adopted the Nairobi Declaration, calling on world leaders...

US-ASEAN establish a research center in Washington, D.C.

Vice President Kamala Harris, who was in Jakarta for a US-ASEAN Summit on September 6, announced Washington’s decision to establish a joint center with...

Mongolia to expand its economic and trade partnerships

Mongolia, the landlocked mineral-rich country bordered by Russia and China - the world's two preeminent authoritarian-run nations, is looking to expand its economic, trade,...

Turkmenistan signals major change in energy-export stance

A big shift is brewing for Caspian Basin energy exports. In a diplomatic about-face, Turkmenistan has signaled its readiness to develop a Trans-Caspian pipeline...

Can Central Asia escape China’s debt trap?

While Washington focuses on the war in Ukraine, Russia and China seek to expand their influence in regions where the US is not sufficiently...