John Kerry finally visits Athens. What to Expect

- Advertisement -

After one postponement last month due to the Syria crisis, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry finally arrives for a short visit in Athens on Friday December 4, ending a whirlwind week in Europe.  This stop is the final one of this week’s Europe program, following Kerry’s attendance at the Paris COP 21 Climate Meeting, a NATO meeting December 1, as well as a Cyprus stop and a Balkan jaunt including Belgrade and Pristina.   But the Greeks should feel honored that Secretary Kerry hasn’t allowed this important visit to slide further down the road, or rather that the U.S. recognizes Greece’s strategic position in these dark days for Europe.
 
Its Geopolitics Stupid….the List is Long
No one can argue that Greece should not be actively engaged in the current long list of regional crises swirling on Greece’s borders.  Some however fantasize that Greece can use its important strategic position to secure better bailout package terms from Europe.  Some in Washington have even tried to make that case, arguing for a more energetic American engagement with a Syriza-run Greece then we have seen to-date.  Secretary Kerry will not allow Washington to be drawn into that broader debate, but will certainly deal with Athens under pressure on several fronts as a supportive ally.
What can Mr. Kerry say or do about the refugee crisis?  Clearly Washington’s work has much more to do with the sources of the refugee flows and the Turkish transit platform, not the details of the Greek border enforcement mess.  Washington’s last engagement, not very positive with Greece, was in an attempt to prevent Greece-based smugglers/companies from illegally supplying UN sanction-bound Serbia in the 1990’s.  So clearly current Greek border control concerns are not a subject of endearment in Washington, but there is a desire to support constructive solutions where it is possible to save lives.
Secretary Kerry’s visit is timely as it allows both sides to do some careful stock-taking, even if brief. While it seems the ball is in Brussels’ court right now in terms of controlling the refugee flow into Greece through Turkey, Washington has an important supporting role.  The linkage however of the refugee transit issue to Aegean sovereignty for Greece is a minefield for any American interlocutor, and only the urgent humanitarian crisis on the Greek islands justifies any U.S. engagement.  We see a similar mess on the Greece-FYROM border right now.  As a former State Department Greek Desk Officer I strongly suspect Secretary Kerry will try to persuade Athens that the crisis provides an opportunity to make another push to resolve the dreaded FYROM “name issue” soon, if only to bolster regional stability during the refugee crisis.  On top of this, hope for progress on Cyprus in the near term means that Washington is counting on Athens not to introduce new impediments to any emerging solution there.
Syria, Russia vs. Turkey and Russia vs. Ukraine all provide Secretary Kerry with a long list of regional items to discuss/consult with Athens on.   We will have to see the program to get a sense of how long these discussions will last.  But the good news is that Greece’s economic incentive to appease Moscow, seen earlier this year in the first Tsipras administration, seems to have largely evaporated.   Removal of that thorn, at least partially, is certainly good news for Greek-American relations.
These days the subject of terrorism has broad European ramifications. Greece’s unfortunate role as a terrorist transit point from the Middle East is certain to come up.  It is not clear whether Washington will be able to offer anything more than moral support; hopefully the current Greece-in-Schengen debate will not come up as a major focus as Washington has no voice in what Europe eventually decides.
 
Energy Issues to Dominate the Economic Discussions
Washington is most interested in ensuring Europe maintains free access to multiple energy sources, accordingly anything to do with the Southern Corridor for Azerbaijan’s gas supplies, as well as future supplies from points further south, remains top priority.  So when it comes to economics, the Obama Administration really focuses on Europe’s energy supplies – something it actually can fix — not Greek debt dynamics.  In fact, Secretary Kerry is not the primary American interlocutor for Greece on any key economic issues other than energy.  Any honest discussions and public remarks on energy matters need to accept that Greece is an important transit spur but Turkey is the true energy junction/lynchpin for the European region. That’s hard to swallow for the Greek side, but one can’t deny that Turkey is clearly the most important factor in the regional energy puzzle.  Washington understands this, but will not highlight that in any way that deflates Athens’ expectations, since there is still plenty of work to be done in Greece.  During this visit we will likely hear of U.S.  companies’ interest in investing in various facilities along the Southern Corridor (TAP) as construction work on Greek territory begins.  Any new investment would be a welcome trend; as we recall Greek PM Tsipras spent time in New York last September desperately seeking investors and finding none.
 
The U.S. Role in the Greek Crisis – Don’t Expect Big Changes
Despite what some Greeks love to imagine, the U.S. role in resolving the Greek financial crisis isn’t changing any time soon.  As a person who used to write briefing memoranda for the U.S. Secretary of State of the day, this writer is aware how of little the U.S. can actually do on issues like Greek structural reform or debt sustainability.  The Greeks simply aren’t willing to accept that the economic crisis is a global issue only when negotiations with the creditors are open but a largely a European one as soon as it comes to implementing the nuts-and-bolts elements of a deal.  Most of the time the supporting U.S. role is simply exercised via votes (or backroom maneuvering) at the IMF.  There are no unilateral U.S. financial resources at stake in the Greek bailout program, only the U.S. contribution to the IMF, and a positive position on the IMF lending still more to a slowly-reforming Athens sometimes provokes unwanted Congressional scrutiny.  Until Greece truly embraces structural reform and especially acknowledges the work it must do to attract investments, the Obama Administration has precious little to work with.  So other than a bit of friendly cheerleading when times are tough, all the U.S. can do is to fairly evaluate Greece’s reform progress when asked.   Accordingly, Secretary Kerry has another chance to get the Greek side’s current perspective during this visit.
Finally, one hopes that Secretary Kerry is not drawn into Greece’s domestic political squabbling over whether the next stage of pension reforms are supported by the opposition and under what conditions.  The foreign policy challenges he faces are enough to fill his plate.

- Advertisement -

Subscribe to our newsletter

CEO/Editor-in-Chief.  Former US diplomat with previous assignments in Eastern Europe, the UN, SE Asia, Greece, across the Balkans, as well as Washington DC.

Latest

EU officially implements landmark AI law

The EU officially implemented its new landmark AI law...

Tariff Trouble in Trump Town

President Trump has had many a cartoon about him...

Global reaction to Trump tariffs only reinforces his use of this tired and risky strategy

True to form, U.S. President Donald Trump disrupted global...

The New Face of an Old Enemy: The renewed dangers of ISIS and al-Qaeda

A dangerous cocktail of indifference and complacency enabled al-Qaeda...

Don't miss

EU officially implements landmark AI law

The EU officially implemented its new landmark AI law...

Tariff Trouble in Trump Town

President Trump has had many a cartoon about him...

Global reaction to Trump tariffs only reinforces his use of this tired and risky strategy

True to form, U.S. President Donald Trump disrupted global...

The New Face of an Old Enemy: The renewed dangers of ISIS and al-Qaeda

A dangerous cocktail of indifference and complacency enabled al-Qaeda...

EU-Central Asia Civil Society Forum enhances regional cooperation, sustainable development

Almaty, the largest city and former capital of Kazakhstan,...

Tariff Trouble in Trump Town

President Trump has had many a cartoon about him as a child throwing toys and anything to hand out of the playpen. Now, of...

Global reaction to Trump tariffs only reinforces his use of this tired and risky strategy

True to form, U.S. President Donald Trump disrupted global markets with a three-day surge of tariff announcements, border security negotiations and ultimately a 30-day...

Donald Trump is inaugurated amidst promises of security, stability and prosperity

After storming a frigid Washington D.C. during his extended inauguration festivities on January 20, Donald J Trump, America’s 47th and 45th President, launched a...

The heat is on Trump’s fossil fuel push, climate change pushback

2024 has officially been confirmed as the warmest year on record, with global temperatures surpassing the 1.5°C threshold mentioned in the Paris Agreement, Alberto...

The Biden administration’s parting gift to Russia: Still more sanctions

Clearly working overtime to underscore the Biden administration’s desire to inflict maximum economic pain on Moscow and its coterie of Ukraine invasion supporters outside...

Undeclared “open season” on energy infrastructure in Europe

Russia is claiming it has shot down nine Ukrainian drones that tried to attack the TurkStream pipeline, which carries Russian gas to Europe through...

Insights from the recent UN-Turkmenistan Dialogue on the International Year of Peace and Trust

The modern world stands at a crossroads, facing unprecedented challenges that range from political conflicts to environmental crises. At the heart of these issues...

Righteous indignation over Maduro’s inauguration unlikely to change Venezuela’s dark reality

President Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela was sworn in on January 10 for his third six-year term. Promising that his third term would be one...