lIt’s always something of a double-edged sword to trot out an ‘I-told-you-so’ when something catastrophic happens, but with ongoing events in Ukraine proving to be more deadly and disastrous than even my own pessimistic predictions…well, I’ve made my position rather clear on both these pages and elsewhere.
As horrified as I am at the sheer scale of the fighting, and heartbroken for two Kyiv-resident Donetsk-born friends of mine who are now refugees for the second time in eight years, I will confess to some smug satisfaction that the analysts and writers – some of whom are Oxbridge graduates, or authors held in high esteem – have been proven utterly wrong.
You know the type; the sort who shake their heads in censorious condescension, and explain that ‘it just doesn’t make sense’ for Putin to launch a major offensive, and ‘he knows what the economic consequences will be’. In fact, last year I met an absolute cretin of a War Studies graduate who explained to me at length that NATO’s Baltic deployments were ‘carefully calibrated’ to deter Russian aggression. So help me, the man worked at a defence-centric organisation, although in my experience people who read War Studies at university are mostly just those who never had the stones to actually enlist (then again, he also wore trainers with a Tweed suit, so I suppose the signs were all there).
However, even I didn’t think they’d really go for Kyiv – I thought it would be a quick grab for Mariupol and a rush for the Crimean border, and perhaps a stab at Kharkiv if things were going really well. At the time of writing, Russia is attempting an encirclement of Kyiv, attacking from both banks of the Dnieper River, which if successful could force Zelensky to the negotiating table. The Russians won’t risk the horror of urban combat against a dug-in enemy if they can pound and starve them into submission – the Ukrainians have already shown that underestimating their skill and will to fight results in high casualties.
Although I don’t want this to be a detailed description of my prediction for how this war plays out, I should – for form’s sake – express my hope and belief that Ukraine can militarily prevail. They’ve given the Russians a few bloody noses over the last two days, and if the reports I have access to are accurate, then Russia’s losses far exceed those of their enemies. It’s also not impossible that if Russia is attempting an encirclement then Ukraine can break it; providing they have fresh units in the western part of their country (and I imagine they do, given its size), they will hopefully be able to relieve Kyiv.
If the Russians are thinking along the same lines, they’ll know they have to attack the city quickly, but that’s a battle they could lose. The sort of blitzkrieg-style offensive they’ve unleashed depends on early (and rapid) success, but these seemed to come unstuck yesterday with the recapture of Hostomel airport and the dogged Ukrainian defence of Mariupol and Sumy. In short, Ukraine is still in this fight, and can’t be counted out.
But my message here is really for the West. I know why you’ve acted as you have over the last twenty years, and I suppose morally it’s – mostly – from a good place; like a reformed alcoholic released back into society, you want to be nice, you don’t want to cause trouble, and above all, you don’t want to repeat the mistakes of the past.
Yet it’s just too late. Your nice, sanitised attempts at politics have failed – repeatedly. I know you think if you’re nice to the Russians they’ll leave you alone, and that it’s better not to point out the unsavoury elements of Islam, but it can’t last.
I’m not a huge fan of Zelensky, but when he declared that Ukraine is the only country defending Western values, he was absolutely right. And again, I’m no supporter of Boris Johnson, but he’s making Brexit a big success by showing that the UK is actually the only country trying to help in a meaningful way. Not that sanctions are likely to work, given what we’ve seen so far.
Europe has this final chance to find its fire – else what was the point of everything that was achieved in the 20th century if it’s all going to be thrown away in the 21st?
