Greece’s Shock on the Institutions’ never-ending proposal: Do Greeks really want this choice?

First, any of us who come from countries that prefer some kind of controlled political process have to be impressed by the intensity of Greece’s dramatic pivot to call a Snap Referendum for July 5. The government has stated the Referendum will be a straight yes/no vote on the proposals (actually they are counterproposals) delivered to Greece by the Eurogroup on Thursday.
At this point, Greek government sources have indicated this is the question to be voted upon:
“Greek people are hereby asked to decide whether they accept a draft  agreement document submitted by the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, at the Eurogroup meeting held on June 25 and which consist of two documents:
The first document is called Reforms for the Completion of the Current Program and Beyond and the second document is called Preliminary Debt Sustainability Analysis.
– Those citizens who reject the institutions’ proposal vote Not Approved / NO
– Those citizens who accept the institutions’ proposal vote Approved / YES.”
(Neither of these English-language documents are currently available in Greek)
Nobody knows however whether the Eurogroup will move to withdraw those proposals later Saturday so that there is no document/basis for a Referendum.
Second, debate on the proposed referendum has just started in the Greek Parliament, and a roll call vote is expected around midnight Athens time. Expect a long night. President Pavlopoulos has indicated he will review the proposal on Monday, June 29th and has otherwise made no comment. The issue under debate at the moment is whether the matters for the Referendum are “Crucial National Matters” (fair game) or so called “Fiscal Issues,” which are not permitted to be submitted for referendum under the Constitution (Article 44). A few procedural loopholes exist for voting on “Important Social Issues,” which might conceivably be re-interpreted to allow this Referendum.   No matter of constitutionality, we do not expect the substance to sway the debate which will clearly be voted strictly along party lines.
Europe’s reaction will clearly be multifaceted. The Eurogroup meeting decision Saturday will clearly feed into the ECB’s ELA (Emergency Liquidity Assistance) calls Monday and higher-level decisions in Frankfurt, which is why a high-level Greek delegation is planning to meet Mr. Draghi on Saturday. It takes little imagination to conclude that capital controls are close, and that Greek banks may not make it to July without them.
Conditions in Athens as of Saturday afternoon: It’s messy in some places but life goes on. Yes there are ATM lines when the machines are dispensing (replenishment is a private logistical issue for each bank) and we have seen small waits at those gas stations operating on weekends, which is not all of them. People seem to be topping off their fuel tanks, encouraged by media reports of spot shortages. Otherwise there are no reports of panic buying anywhere at this time. Let’s hope we can say the same thing on Monday.