The handing over of power by Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen to his son Hun Manet is an attempt to maintain the old regime, rather than to open the door to a new future.
Hun Sen, who has used violent repression to keep power since 1984, has said that he will stand down in favor of his son. Hun Manet has been fast-tracked through to senior military positions due to the fact that his father sees him as a reliable political option, rather than due to any record of achievement.
He has no independent political experience, and his public speeches to date are read simply as the parroting of the words of his father. There’s not even anything clear to prove that Hun Manet actually wants the job.
Neither does Hun Manet have any democratic mandate to be a member of parliament, let alone prime minister. He “won” his first parliamentary seat in the July 2023 election, which, like that in 2018, took place in the absence of a recognized opposition party. Literally, anyone could run as a candidate for the ruling Cambodian People’s Party and win a seat with the opposition banned.
The fact that the elections were not free and fair has been widely noted. The run-up to the poll created new low points in the misuse of the electoral process in Cambodia with school children being taken to ruling party rallies by their teachers. Such actions show clearly that Cambodia is a one-party state with chilling parallels with Nazi Germany in the 1930s. It’s now seven years since the respected independent political commentator Kem Ley was gunned down in broad daylight in Phnom Penh. In 2023, Cambodians once again have been denied the chance to determine their own future by brute force.
The leader of the banned opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party, Kem Sokha, was in March this year sentenced to 27 years in prison on a bogus charge of “treason” for which no evidence was ever produced. All this has been done, not in the national interest, but in the interests of a single person.
Hun Sen needs to try to protect himself from legal prosecution for the numerous atrocities committed during his rule. These include the Phnom Penh grenade attack on a small and peaceful opposition protest in March 1997, which killed 16 people and left an estimated 150 people wounded.
I was the leader of that protest march and now live in forced exile in Paris while possessing both French and Cambodian citizenship. The French courts at the end of 2021 indicted two Cambodian generals, Huy Piseth and Hing Bun, for the attack, and said there is sufficient evidence to believe that Hun Sen’s personal security unit was responsible. The investigating judge Sabine Kheris noted “the lack of cooperation from the Cambodian authorities all along the process of this judicial investigation.” Hun Sen has not been prosecuted in France solely because he has immunity as head of government. That immunity ends as soon as he stands down: he can be brought before a French court at any time.
Return to Feudalism
The handover to Hun Manet is part of a feudal-style generational transfer of power by a small group of powerful Cambodian families. Hun Manet’s cabinet will be made up mainly of sons of existing senior ruling party figures.
At the highest level, the succession is artificial and cosmetic. Hun Sen has made it clear that he intends to remain a powerful figure in the background. He will remain president of the Cambodian People’s Party and plans to become president of the Senate in February 2024. Hun Sen has also said that if Hun Manet has a life-threatening problem – or perhaps if his son doesn’t prove to be up to the job - he will take over as prime minister again.
The current system will continue with its Communist-type workings, with the government and the state under the direction of the party. While this system is in place, changing the prime minister in itself does not change much. In Syria, hopes were raised in 2000 when President Hafez al-Assad handed over to his son Bashar al-Assad, who was supposed to represent a new, better-educated, and more open generation.
These hopes were quickly dissipated.
The son turned out to be worse than his father in terms of violating democratic principles and human rights, as well as aggressive confrontation with the West. This shows that a change of personnel doesn’t mean much if the system remains the same. Given the personalities of the Cambodian father and son, it is safe to say that it won’t be Hun Manet who changes the rigid system built by Hun Sen.
The current system rests on political and police repression and can’t allow itself to be liberalized. This would open the door to voices of protest across the country, with the opposition winning the first actual election. The increasingly violent repression of recent years has narrowed Hun Manet’s options and means he has to follow in the footsteps of Hun Sen.
Neither will there be a change in terms of foreign policy. The alliance with Communist China is vital and irreplaceable for the Hun Sen regime in terms of political, diplomatic, financial, and military support. China won’t leave Cambodia as long as the Hun family rests in power. Having a compliant Cambodia as a military bastion in southeast Asia is a fundamental strategic element of its global expansion strategy.
The West should be under no illusions as to the possibility of breaking the Hun Sen-China alliance. Such fantasies ignore the fact that the China alliance is existential for the Hun Sen regime. The West, and countries such as Japan and Australia, must not waste precious time which could be spent defining realistic strategies to defend their interests and security.
The global democratic community must deny all legitimacy to the Hun Sen-Hun Manet regime and impose personal sanctions on all those responsible for human rights violations in Cambodia. A new start can only come with genuine elections in which all parties are allowed to stand.
