Germany’s February 23 parliamentary elections played out largely along predicted lines, with the main question on election day being how many parties would reach the required five percent threshold to obtain seats in the 630-member Bundestag. The clear winner was the conservative alliance CDU/CSU, whose ascent to the summit of German politics was expected following the meltdown of the so-called “traffic light coalition” (including three different parties) led by Social Democrat (SPD) Olaf Scholz in late 2024.
This year’s election saw the highest voter turnout since before German reunification in 1990, with issues such as immigration, the rising cost of living and energy concerns at the top of voters’ minds.
With some exceptions for major urban areas, the areas of the country that formerly made up the German Federal Republic (West Germany) strongly supported the CDU/CSU alliance — Christian Democratic Union of Germany and the Christian Social Union in Bavaria — which came in first nationally with 28.5 percent to win 208 seats. Older voters formed the core of the party’s electoral base.
The provinces that formerly made up the German Democratic Republic (GDR) or East Germany leaned heavily towards the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which propelled by this support as well as the country’s extended economic downturn, came in second nationally with 20.8 percent of the vote and netted 152 seats, more than double its 2021 election levels. As the AfD will not have much if any influence in the yet-to-be-formed coalition government, it is probable a large part of eastern Germany will be effectively excluded from the governing system. That is of course a basic result of those voters’ personal choices, not any fault in the political system. Nonetheless total political exclusion is in nobody’s interest.
The formerly dominant Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) dropped painfully to third place, with 16.4 percent of the votes and 120 seats, while the Greens received 11.6 percent of the vote and 85 Bundestag seats. The fifth party attaining seats is the urban leftist “Die Linke” (the Left) party which scored 8.8 percent yielding the party 64 seats, an important result as the party seemed to many observers to be on the verge of collapsing not too long ago. A last minute surge in support was critical; apart from its home areas in eastern Germany, the party won in large parts of Berlin and even made some progress in the west of the country.
One additional small party barely missed attaining the five percent threshold, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance – Reason and Justice, is essentially a far-left breakaway faction of Die Linke.
With the CDU/CSU clearly in the top electoral spot, its leader Friedrich Merz is now in line to be the next chancellor. Now comes the tough challenge of forming a coalition that keeps the so-called “firewall” in place and the AfD out of government, but the numbers suggest a three-party coalition without the AfD or The Left should be possible. Those two parties do, however, have enough seats to block any constitutional changes they do not support, such as removing the so-called “debt-brake.”
The first round of exploratory talks between the CDU/CSU and SPD begin on February 28. Until a new government is formed, Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his coalition with the Greens continues to govern in caretaker mode.
With the challenges presented by the ongoing Trump-generated transatlantic rift and differences over the Ukraine war, the hope is that Merz sees this win as an opportunity to alter Germany’s approach to its defense spending, economic policy — especially debt, and its general role as a leader within and beyond Europe.
Washington certainly has reason to welcome the CDU’s victory. “This is a great day for Germany,” was the message from Donald Trump on Sunday. Merz, however, took a different tack as the votes were still being tallied on election night. Declaring the U.S. indifferent to Europe’s fate, Merz questioned the future of NATO and demanded Europe rapidly boost its own defences.
According to the Atlantic Council’s Jorn Fleck, it is no secret that “Germany has been AWOL as a political and economic leader of the EU, as part of the Franco-German engine, and as a security actor.” Fleck further added “At a time of tremendous instability, fraying transatlantic links, and fundamental challenges to Europe’s security and economy, Europe simply can no longer afford a Germany missing in action — as both a political heavyweight and an economic engine. Merz, as a committed European, can offer a fresh start if he plays his cards right.”
Merz and the CDU’s relatively hawkish stance toward China differs significantly from his predecessor, Scholz, which has sometimes angered Germany’s allies. This was recently illustrated by Germany’s decision in October to vote against EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. If Merz does toughen Berlin’s rhetoric on China, it would be an important signal that Germany stands together with Washington on the most significant U.S. strategic rival since the Soviet Union.
