The world is becoming an increasingly tough place for incumbent leaders everywhere when coming up for re-election. Even so, the April 12 parliamentary elections in Hungary produced a stinging defeat for long-serving far right Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his Fidesz party, and the intensity of the negative voter response was above the local opposition’s most optimistic expectations, yielding a supermajority in parliament that will allow for deep systemic reforms. And because of Orban’s enduring partnerships with Russian President Vladimir Putin and American President Donald Trump, analysts and numerous less knowledgeable journalistic commentators have all attributed substantially more importance to an election than would normally be given to a small European country like Hungary.
Key election facts
Ending Orbán’s 16-year rule, former insider turned challenger Peter Magyar’s Tisza (Respect and Freedom) Party won in a landslide (136-138 seats) and appears to have secured a two-thirds supermajority (over 133 seats needed) in Hungary’s 199-seat National Parliament. This will be critical for possible constitutional revisions and other key reforms such as judicial modernization, reducing state media control and setting term limits for prime ministers.
With a turnout of around 79.6 percent, a record high since 2002, the April 12 vote was one of the most consequential elections in post-communist Hungary. This was undoubtedly a very high participation election, reflecting extensive voter mobilization and high demand for political change.
Addressing the media on April 13, the Prime Minister-elect said full election results should be confirmed by May 4, and he hoped his government could be installed the next day. Magyar also noted reports of documents being destroyed in several government ministries and hinted that he would soon ask for the resignation of Hungary’s current President.
To win the April 12 election, Magyar built a single, centralized movement, not a coalition, and deftly positioned himself as a system insider turned reformer. Accordingly, Tisza attracted both disillusioned Fidesz voters and traditional opposition voters.
Another key conclusion from the vote is that Magyar made substantial inroads outside Budapest, which earlier opposition movements failed to accomplish. Fidesz’s dominance had been heavily based on small towns and rural districts and especially the patronage networks controlling jobs, local investment, and EU funds distribution. As EU funding disruptions weakened local patronage flows and lower-income rural voters felt the impact of inflation and stagnation more heavily than urban voters, a significant number of rural districts slipped away from Fidesz dominance.
Things also fell apart for Fidesz during the April 12 election because of the mercurial nature of “winner take all” elections in which the highest vote-getter wins in each individual district – so if the victory margins in numerous districts are close enough, a swing of even a relatively small number of voters can result in a huge shift in election outcomes. A number of top election systems experts believe this is what happened in Hungary as both the complicated two tier electoral system itself and electoral districts had been extensively modified throughout Orban’s rule in attempt to hold onto power, until public pressure for change drove the system to turn on its creators.
Who is Peter Magyar?
Magyar took over and rebranded the Tisza Party in 2024, positioning it as a centrist, reform-oriented movement emphasizing respect, transparency, and European values. He quickly attracted a wide following disillusioned with both the government and established opposition and at age 45 he appears to be the leader Hungary needs to restore its European trajectory.
His reformist rhetoric and emphasis on ending corruption have made him one of Hungary’s most recognizable political figures. His marriage to former Fidesz Justice Minister Judit Varga (until 2023) also drew the attention of political insiders while he was a Fidesz member. Trained in law and public administration, Magyar served as a Hungarian diplomat in Brussels, later serving on the boards of state-owned companies as part of Orban’s ruling Fidesz apparatus.
At heart a conservative, he had risen steadily in Fidesz circles but was not known to the general public until he broke with Fidesz over a corruption scandal in 2024, involving his now ex-wife, generating massive media attention after an appearance on an opposition YouTube Channel called Partizan.
After he broke with Orban, one Fidesz minister said Magyar was “one who first betrays his family, then betrays his country as an agent of Brussels.”
Elected as an MEP in 2024, Magyar joined the European People’s Party (EPP) group and served on committees for constitutional and agricultural affairs. He has promoted Hungary’s stronger engagement with the European Union, vowing to restore EU funding and institutional trust, creating a very receptive environment for his planned early Brussels visit.
Europe hopeful
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen issued a warm congratulatory note regarding Magyar’s victory, stating “today Europe is Hungarian without any question” and that “the people of Hungary have spoken, and they have reclaimed their European path.” Other EU leaders also issued multiple pre-cooked congratulatory messages on cue. Von der Leyen also said Brussels would start work with the new Hungarian government “as soon as possible” to make progress on issues including the release of frozen European funds, which may have played a role in securing Orban’s defeat.
Magyar’s victory cannot be seen as anything but a disaster for Moscow, with Orban long considered to be Putin’s top supporter in EU circles and the main opponent of expanded EU aid to Ukraine and tougher sanctions on Russia. It should not be forgotten that current Foreign Minister Péter Szijjarto has admitted sharing information with Russian officials before and after EU meetings on sanctions. The expectation in Brussels is that the EU aid package for Kyiv will be released in May or June at the latest, as soon as the new Magyar government takes over. On a similar timeline the EU’s 20th Russia sanctions package, now blocked, should be approved.
EU enlargement is back in the picture with Orban’s defeat and strong objections to Ukraine’s admission fading accordingly, but there is no reason to expect any new candidate will join in the next two years.
Trumpers cry foul
It is truly astounding how many “experts” and analysts have obsessed over one issue in U.S. – Hungarian relations, most of which has nothing to do with diplomacy, but simply focuses on the Trump-Orban relationship and the obvious failure of Trump’s efforts to influence the April 12 election outcome by sending U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance to Budapest for two days in the last week of the campaign. It would be quite surprising if even one million of Trump’s MAGA supporters could find Hungary on a map, yet anti-Trump commentary in western media outlets has extolled Magyar’s victory as the beginning of the end of MAGA style populism across Europe and proclaiming the end of “the axis of autocracy.”
The Trump administration had focused on providing small economic and technology deliverables to Orban’s Hungary since his White House visit last November as a sign of Trump’s support, and it should not be assumed these will be cancelled as some of these projects offered commercial benefits to U.S. companies favored/selected by the Trump team and a small level of assistance to Hungarian institutions as well, especially regarding nuclear energy. One open question remains however, and it is crucial for Budapest. Will there be any change to the one-year waiver from U.S. Russian oil sanctions that Trump handed to Orban in his White House visit?