International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol said on April 23 oil prices may decline further this year due to slow demand growth in the markets, mainly driven by what is happening in China. “If there are no other surprises, we may expect oil prices to see a downward pressure further,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg television.
There’s still lots of uncertainty and “a change in the trade war’s context in a positive direction may increase the global economic outlook, and we may see oil demand slightly higher than what we have now,” Birol said, adding that it’s also hard to predict a direction for Iran’s oil exports amid the country’s talks with the Trump administration.
Birol was speaking in London where the IEA Executive Director and UK Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero Ed Miliband are co-hosting an international Summit on the “Future of Energy Security” on April 24-25.
The two-day Summit comes at a pivotal moment. The IEA pointed out in a press release that recent years have brought numerous energy-related shocks – from the global pandemic and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine to supply chain disruptions, extreme weather events, and cyberattacks. At the same time, the global energy landscape is undergoing rapid transformation, driven by the expansion of clean energy technologies, shifting patterns in supply and demand, electrification and geopolitical developments.
While crude futures have recovered over the past two weeks, they have been trending lower throughout April after U.S. President Donald Trump announced his plans for new tariffs on China and almost all other countries trading with the United States. On April 24, Brent crude futures rose 43 cents, or 0.7 percent, to settle at $66.55 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 52 cents, or 0.8 percent, to settle at $62.79, Reuters reported. Oversupply from OPEC+ could also drive prices lower.
Despite the U.S.-China tariff fight, which has weighed heavily on oil prices in recent weeks as it could slow economic growth and decrease oil demand, political uncertainty, especially the situation in Iran has kept oil prices relatively stable, Johannes Benigni, Director Energy & Politics at JBC Vienna GmbH told NE Global on April 23.
“We have a lot of games at stake for the gambler: Mr. Trump. One of them is Iran and this game can become quite escalating, and tension can rise high,” he said.
From the global point of view, the tariffs are going to be the underlying issue that could cause oil prices to fall below $40 per barrel if there is a complete meltdown in the U.S. relationship with China, Benigni said. However, the Vienna-based energy and politics analyst expects oil prices to remain stable at their current level due to geopolitics. “It is difficult to see oil prices coming lower with all the risk, volatility and uncertainty at hand. Demand is at risk, but political risk is higher,” Benigni said.
Negotiations between Iran and the U.S. over Tehran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program will return April 27 to Oman, where experts on both sides will start hammering out the technical details of any possible deal, ABC News reported.
Asked if he sees U.S. oil production falling because of lower oil prices, Benigni told NE Global: “No – not yet. But I don’t see it rising either – $50 – $60 is what they need.”
Meanwhile, at the Summit on the Future of Energy Security on April 24, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said energy security is national security, and it is therefore a fundamental duty of government. “In the UK, we’re stepping up now to make energy a source not of vulnerability and worry, which it is at the moment and has been for so long, but a source of strength, of security and pride.”
“Reliable and affordable energy is the lifeblood of our economies,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said. “It sustains our industrial and economic competitiveness.” In the same keynote address, the European Commission President set out the actions Europe is taking on energy security: “We are also working to ensure that the clean industries of the future are built in Europe, with a clean industrial deal. We will mobilise over €100 billion to support clean manufacturing.”
Birol said energy is the foundation of modern life. “But without energy security, there can be no economic stability, energy poverty will remain unsolved, and we will not be able to meet our sustainability goals. The IEA Executive Director noted that the world is entering a new age of electricity, driven by clean energy technologies and digital innovation. “This brings new opportunities but also new vulnerabilities. Diversification of supply – whether it’s oil, gas or critical minerals – remains a golden rule of energy security. We must be prepared to act quickly and collectively,” Birol stressed.
Energy security and national security are inextricably linked.
Lasting energy security comes from countries working together, including on the clean energy transition.
My message, alongside @fbirol of @IEA 👇https://t.co/w7Y9vA8Mr2
— Ed Miliband (@Ed_Miliband) April 24, 2025
Miliband warned that the world is entering a new era, and it is clearer than ever that there can be no national security without energy security. “That’s why the UK is showing global leadership alongside the International Energy Agency by bringing the world together for the first major global summit on clean energy as energy security. We are co-hosting this Summit to come together and cooperate on rising to the challenges we face and seizing the opportunities to act.”
