Ukraine is directly threatened militarily from the East. There is a worry that the situation can quickly deteriorate to the levels last experienced in 2014. Nobody knows what Russia is actually planning. A small provocation? A diplomatic bluff to extract concessions from Ukraine regarding the implementation of the Minsk agreement or normalization of relations with the West? A small war, pandering to the domestic moods in Russia and covering up the Navalny crisis with a small convenient patriotic effort against “the fascists”?
Whatever Russia is planning, Ukraine is in a different place, in comparison to 2014. The society is more united, behind President Volodymyr Zelensky. Despite problems with corruption and a pandemic-stricken economy, the Ukrainian state is consolidated. The country is more stable economically and socially. It has a better army, thanks to the assistance of the West and some investments by the Ukrainian state. Cooperation with NATO has also deepened in past years.
Ukrainian politicians have also started the discussion about joining NATO. Is there a chance for Ukraine to become a regular member of the Alliance? Never say “never”. Ukraine is a sovereign country, with every right to pursue independent foreign and security policy. To exclude this possibility (for example in the name of placating Russia) would mean that we as the West acknowledge Russia’s claim of supremacy in the “Russky Mir” (the Russian World). It would mean our agreement to the Cold War-style division of the world into spheres of influence for world powers.
At the same time, while many Western leaders are supportive of Ukrainian territorial integrity, they rarely openly support Ukrainian membership in NATO. There are many views in the West, also among the sceptics of this idea. Some people are backers of Russia, implicitly or explicitly. Others are appeasers of Russia and believe it is too dangerous, it should not be provoked. There are also supporters of Ukraine (I subscribe to this group) who believe that talking about the enlargement of NATO to the east at this stage might be premature and counterproductive, given the moods and divisions in the Ukrainian society itself.
Would joining NATO (or even starting this process) deter Russian aggression? Not really. What deters Russian aggression (or keeps it in check) is not what happens in the military sphere but in the area of diplomatic-economic relations between the West and Russia. If the West imposes more and potentially far-reaching sanctions on Russia (for example cutting it off from dollar-based financial markets), the Russian economy would feel instant and acute pain. This is what stops Russia from bigger-scale aggression towards Ukraine. This option should still be on the table.
The US and the EU should be ready to provide all the diplomatic (but also material and financial) support to Ukraine that the West can muster. This should be at all levels – in international organisations such as the Council of Europe or OSCE, and in other forums not directly linked to the conflict. For example, how Ukraine deals with the pandemic is partially dependent on the availability of equipment, vaccines and medications that the West would be able to provide.
Of course, the military dimension matters to a degree – if Ukraine has a better army, the physical and human costs for Russia, in case of escalation of conflict, can become too big for its public opinion to bear. That is why the West should keep on supporting Ukraine – with equipment or training etc. That is why direct invasion (as opposed to the rapid action of “little green men” in Crimea in 2014) would be a huge gamble on the part of Russia. If there is bloodshed in which Russian soldiers die in big numbers, the Russian public opinion could quickly turn against their already embattled president.
At this stage, the accession of Ukraine into NATO could create a false promise of security to Ukraine. The country’s territory is compromised, and no diplomatic agreement would change this fundamental fact. Enlargement of NATO would entail huge responsibility for current NATO members to be ready for open high-scale war with Russia. Western societies are not prepared for such a scenario.
Russia is aware of Western mindsets, which leads me to the conclusion that it would not be deterred by NATO accession talks of Ukraine. Some cynics could argue that Russia would even welcome Ukraine’s accession because the Kremlin would assume this is the end of NATO, which is the ultimate Russian dream.