The EU uptake of electric vehicles is increasing, with 550,000 new registrations in 2019 compared to 300,000 in 2018. According to the European Environmental Agency, this is in line with the EU’s emissions reduction objective in the transport sector. Of course, the uptake of electric vehicles varies significantly from country to country, and not surprisingly, the region of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is at the bottom.
In 2019 battery and electric hybrid vehicles accounted for less than .6% of newly registered EVs in Slovakia, less than .5% in the Czech Republic and Poland, and for the leader of the Visegrad 4 pack, Hungary, clocked in at nearly 1.7%. The Baltic States are similarly near .5%, with Romania and Bulgaria around 1%.
Based on this, some might be surprised to learn about the real efforts being made by CEE governments to increase electric vehicle (EV) sales, but it is true.
Taking after the 2017 EU Clean Mobility Package and Alternative Fuel Infrastructure directive, slowly but surely these countries have been rolling out national e-mobility strategies that incentivize the purchase of EVs and provide the core charging network. But it isn’t working so far, and most importantly, the question is whether results can be expected by 2030, to factor into member state climate goals. The challenges and obstacles are interrelated, but the ones mentioned the least might be the most significant and difficult to resolve.
While most tick the boxes with some mixture of point-of-sale rebates, scrapping programmes, free parking and everything in between, models remain limited and sales culture biased towards more familiar internal combustion vehicles (ICE). Most will tell you the real barrier is on the infrastructure side, both physical and digital, for intra-city and cross-border trips respectively. Although an estimated 90% of EV charging occurs at home, the presence of urban charging stations offer assurance and, quite understandably, individuals will not purchase a primary car that can’t be relied on for a weekend trip outside the city if not the country.
It is true that CEE has far less public charging stations than in the West, and the ‘chicken or the egg’ dilemma is playing out. This is, however, changing as key public-private stakeholders and expert advisors advance detailed development plans and the RPPs prioritize financial support for the rollout.
Even with the improved infrastructure over the next few years, the two systemic factors at the heart of the issue – prevailing consumer sentiment and GDP per capita – will continue to persist through most of the decade.
The late-blooming middle class of CEE still values German brands and car ownership, a symbol of status and freedom that was out of reach for the parents of this generation. Even as EVs come closer to sticker price parity with ICE, which many experts predict to be a turning point, it simply doesn’t matter as much in CEE. People are not buying new cars at the same rate and keep the cars they do buy for longer.
Unfortunately, as EVs get cheaper, so do older, high emitting second-hand vehicles that continue to pile up across CEE. This is because more and more Western Europeans are selling their diesel and petrol vehicles, steadily purged by stricter local emission standards and environmentally conscious consumers, to countries where car regulations are lax. If not Hungary or Romania, they will wind up in Serbia or Albania. This ‘diesel leakage’ is a serious problem in its own right, not only for the EU but its periphery, and not much is being done.
To start there needs to be a common, coordinated effort among Danube Region countries from scrappage trade-ins at the source, to the alignment of registration and taxation policies with climate objectives at the destination.
Even if changes are made tomorrow stemming the flow, the low turnover rate means that most of the current cars will stay on the road, not to mention the 99% share of new registered ICE vehicles, even if they are at least more efficient. If politicians are hesitant to update terms of vehicle registration, posing emissions restrictions on current owners seems unlikely anytime soon. For this reason, there needs to be more exploratory, science-based discussions on first and second-generation biofuels for potential expansion in CEE.
E-mobility and the charging infrastructure backbone must continue to be prioritized in CEE, there is no question that this is the future for passenger vehicles. Especially in the absence of consumer EV sales, targeted policies need to incentivize their uptake in company fleets and medium-sized suppliers like the post office, delivery services, police etc, to form a critical mass. At the same time, sticky CEE consumer behavior and low turnover rates need to be addressed through new regulation and alternative fuel technology to have a fighting chance at reducing transport emissions this decade.