The results of Moldova’s recent presidential elections and referendum are final. President Maia Sandu won a re-election bid, while a referendum to cement the country’s European Union (EU) aspirations was also (barely) approved.
In a tight race, President Sandu obtained 42 percent of the vote during the first round on October 20. Her opponent, former prosecutor general Alexandr Stoianoglo, from the Socialist Party (Partidul Socialiștilor din Republica Moldova, PSRM), received 26 percent of the vote; he is generally regarded as being Moscow-friendly. The run-off occurred on 3 November, with Sandu winning 55.41 percent against Stoianoglo’s 44.59 percent.
Moreover, the elections were accompanied by a referendum on Moldova’s EU aspirations. The “yes” vote passed with barely 50.2 percent of the vote against a substantial 49 percent, paving the way for Moldova’s EU membership goal to be enshrined in the Moldovan constitution.
The good news for President Sandu and her administration is that most Moldovans support her government and her European project. The Moldovan youth and the diaspora –many of whom live in Germany, Italy, Romania, and the United States – want the country to become an EU member. The diaspora vote was critical to get Sandu re-elected, as she received 930,000 votes against her opponent’s 748,000.
Per the referendum’s result, the Constitutional Court has modified the Constitution’s Title V’s Article 140. The article now has the preamble, “Reconfirming the European identity of the people of the Republic of Moldova and the irreversibility of the European course of the Republic of Moldova; Declaring integration into the European Union as a strategic objective of the Republic of Moldova.” According to the Moldovan news agency IPN, it is the first time the people have modified the Constitution, as in the 11 previous times, the document was modified only by Parliament.
The Moldovan government has accused Russia of meddling in the electoral process. Accusations include disinformation and misinformation campaigns, giving money to the exiled criminal oligarch Ilan Shor (also spelled Ilan Șor) and other pro-Moscow Moldovan politicians and business people.
Since Chisinau applied for EU membership in 2022 (months after the war in Ukraine commenced), government officials and investigative journalists have argued and proven that Moldovan nationals were paid to protest against Sandu. During the recent elections, there were widespread accusations of individuals offering Moldovans money to vote against Sandu and “No” in the referendum. Moscow has denied the allegations of interference in Moldova’s electoral process.
Russia’s strategic objective is to block Moldova’s integration into the European Union, according to some analysts, as Moscow sees Chisinau’s objectives as a threat to its influence in the region. By hindering Moldova’s path toward the EU, Russia seeks to maintain its leverage over the country and preserve a sphere of influence in Eastern Europe. This opposition is often reinforced through economic pressures, energy dependency, and political support for pro-Russian factions within Moldova. For Russia, Moldova’s alignment with the EU represents a shift away from its traditional sphere of control, undermining Moscow’s geopolitical interests and regional influence (separatist Transnistria notwithstanding).
Despite the proven Russian interference with the elections, many Moldovans remain skeptical of Sandu’s European project and the benefits they will directly enjoy from EU membership. Other Moldovans, likely the older generation, miss the “stability” of the Soviet era. Therefore, the significant support for pro-Moscow candidates and the negative vote in the referendum cannot be solely blamed on bribes, TV ads, and social media bots.
The inhabitants of Gagauzia, in Southern Moldova, voted 95 percent against the referendum and 97.04 percent for Stoianoglo, while the “yes” barely got 5 percent, and Sandu received a mere 2.96 percent of the votes. Gagauzians have historically preferred Russia over Europe. The logic for this preference is complex, though language is part of the reason.
While Gagauz is the natural tongue of Gagauzians, the overwhelming majority communicate in Russian, which means they are more exposed to Russian information and opinions. Russia is also a major trade partner with Gagauzia. In other words, economic, linguistic, and socio-historical ties are all components of the answer. Gagauzia also enjoys a high degree of autonomy within Moldova; in 2014, the region held an illegal referendum in which they reserved the right to secede from the country. The governor of Gagauzia, the Bashkan, has historically been Moscow-friendly. Current Bashkan Evegenia Gutsul has traveled often to Moscow and asked for Russian “protection” from Chisinau.
Other Moldovans are likely disappointed with Sandu because of hardships experienced since the war commenced, which affected Moldova-Russia ties. The past few years have been harsh as Moldova cut off Russian energy supplies. While the country no longer depends on Moscow for energy, the energy costs affect the general population.
Moldovans benefited from subsidies that reduced their energy bills for about a year. Now, however, they must pay the full amount upfront and apply for financial assistance from the state, which will partially cover their costs, assuming they qualify. The situation is particularly challenging for Moldova’s large diaspora, many of whom own homes in the country but do not qualify for aid, as eligibility requires residents to be physically present in Moldova. Ironically, while 49 percent of the population voted against Moldova’s EU membership, the EU will continue supporting the Moldovan people by partially covering their energy and electricity bills.
Sandu hopes Moldova will be ready for EU membership by the decade’s end. While optimistic, this goal will be hard to achieve, as the country needs vast upgrades and efficient modernization projects. Justice sector reform is an outstanding project, and so is strengthening the Moldovan economy. Addressing the economy is an eternal struggle, with inflation reaching 5.2 percent in September 2024. The country’s ongoing brain drain, separatist Transnistria, and the future of the war in Ukraine remain pressing issues for Moldova’s stability.
Looking to the future, Sandu’s next electoral challenge will be the Spring 2025 parliamentary elections. Her Party of Action and Solidarity (Partidul Acțiune și Solidaritate, PAS) currently has 62 seats in the 101-seat Parliament. This majority has helped Sandu push for her reforms and European projects.
Given Sandu’s complex challenges to get re-elected and for the referendum to pass, it is debatable whether her PAS party will maintain a majority.
The presidential elections and referendum have secured Moldova’s European path. Dr. Corneliu Bjola from the University of Oxford published a commentary saying Sandu’s victory against Stoianoglo was really a victory against Putin. Sandu has truly become, as I have described her before, the Iron Lady of Eastern Europe. President Maia Sandu enjoyed back-to-back wins, but to convince Moldovans that Europe is the right destination and counter the influence of disinformation campaigns, Moldovans need to see tangible improvements in their daily lives.
