With all the current political upheaval in the UK, it is almost easy to forget that what prompted the current turmoil was a row over defense spending. And while the history of our Navy is both dramatic and inspiring, the current position is both embarrassing and humiliating.
It’s a Navy where we now have more admirals (over 140) than ships (62) and cannot even manage the “de minimis” provision of one minesweeper in the Persian Gulf. We have two spanking new, although apparently quite leaky aircraft carriers, but not sufficient planes to populate them and not enough support vessels to provide the necessary cover and protection for these behemoths.
So, what do we think is better value? Spending £6 billion for two aircraft carriers (excluding any planes) or for thousands of disposable drones watching, waiting and warning any potential adversaries? And which one is likely to be not just physically effective but very cost effective? Just ask Ukraine.
Over the past few months, we have seen Russian spy ships nibbling at our vital undersea cables, Putin’s shadow fleet of tankers breaking sanctions almost at will and now most recently a Russian frigate with its identifiers switched off, threatening a small yacht in that hotly disputed area just south of the Isle of Wight. So much for the defense budget. This is not defensive; this is offensive to us as citizens and taxpayers.
This is yet another example which must mark the end of the complacency we and so many other countries have been suffering from since the end of the Cold War. Following on from the end of World War II, the global economy has, despite some obvious failings through war, incompetence and criminal intent, been able to continue to grow with a reasonable level of confidence. This post war period of expanding capitalism has pulled record numbers of people out of poverty and increased both wealth and health. But can this continue? Here are some statements we should examine and challenge:
- Growth can continue forever. Yes, we have a yellow brick road ahead of us – but going where?
- Global conflicts, as opposed to regional wars, are a thing of the past. All sides have too much to lose, and therefore why would anyone try to upset the international status quo? In fact, global battles have continued but more often through proxy armies operating on our behalf. Over the past half century, we have on occasion come perilously close to broader conflagrations – such as the Cuban crisis, the various Middle Eastern Gordian knots of confused allies, partners, enemies and terrorists and the current situation with Russia/Ukraine.
- Global debt is high but…. it has been the stimulation for economic growth, and so long as there is enough confidence that the cost of debt can be managed, the financial carousel can carry on as before. However, if the confidence is lost and someone realizes that the Emperor appears somewhat sartorially challenged, then the fairy tale of funding finance will be exposed.
Closer to home we are constantly told we live in “Broken Britain”. This is wrong.
The UK is still the world’s sixth largest economy and is still the 11th largest manufacturer as well as having a significant number of high technology hubs throughout the UK – over 40.
The UK’s financial base is still seen as being one of the leading centers of the world, with well-regarded international investment markets, a highly respected legal and accounting base, and a reputation for good regulation and quality standards of security and probity.
Oh yes – and we speak English, the most spoken language around the globe.
So, when your large threatening neighbor is claiming that WW III has already started, should you:
- Ignore them and carry on as well as increasing your welfare budget?
- Marginally increase your defense budget and still increase your welfare budget?
- Invest in your defense such that any threatening party would be think twice before any further aggressive actions?
In 1939 with the threat of war growing rapidly, the answer was clear – you invested in new equipment, especially in fighters for the RAF. So, if we are seeing some similar threats from a financially struggling Russia, now is the time to change our borrowing rules and be seen to be taking real action to counter such belligerent threats. Not embarrass ourselves with a shrunken navy with more admirals than vessels, an army that couldn’t fill Wembley stadium and two aircraft carriers without the right number of aircraft. As is often the case the politicians and advisors seem happy to prepare for the last war – not the next.