A dangerous cocktail of indifference and complacency enabled al-Qaeda to evolve from a shadowy fringe network in the early 1990s into one of the most destructive and infamous terrorist organizations the world has ever known. Early warning signs – including attacks on U.S. embassies in East Africa and on the USS Cole – were dismissed as distant dangers, failing to provoke a coordinated decisive response in Western capitals. This complacency paved the way for the tragedy of 9/11. As the several attacks in Europe and the recent tragedy in New Orleans have shown, history is starting to repeat itself, except now the scale of the problem is larger, the geography more expansive and the consequences equally dire.
In the 90s, the threat of terrorism emanated from isolated bases in Afghanistan, set against the backdrop of a relatively subdued Middle East. The Oslo Accords, flawed as they were, reflected an era of tentative de-escalation in the region. Fast forward to today, and the geopolitical landscape has drastically shifted. The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan has created a power vacuum, allowing the Taliban to re-entrench power while providing sanctuary for al-Qaeda, which is steadily regaining strength. Meanwhile, ISIS has not only persisted but expanded its influence across Africa, particularly in the Sahel and East Africa.
The situation in Syria adds another layer of complexity. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly a close affiliate of al-Qaeda, has taken advantage of the ongoing conflict to cement its power, succeeding in its offensive against Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Its leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, is currently in the process of forming a new political order in Syria. However, the future role and influence of the many Islamist groups that are part of the HTS coalition and operate within the country remains unclear, further compounding the uncertainty.
Jihadist activity in Africa and the Middle East
Research by the Counter Extremism Project underscores the alarming spread of jihadist activity, particularly in Africa. Over the past two years, the Sahel region has seen a significant increase in documented attacks and territorial gains by these groups. This highlights how fragile states are being exploited by jihadists to grow their power bases, all while the global community remains preoccupied with other crises.
Exacerbating the threat is the deepening radicalization fuelled by the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. This violence, amplified across the Middle East and on social media, provides Islamist terrorist groups with powerful narratives to recruit new members and raise funds. Far from being isolated bands of fighters in remote regions, these groups now function as well-resourced organizations. They generate income through activities like kidnapping, extortion, and illicit trade while gaining access to vast swathes of ungoverned territory, further solidifying their international presence.
The critical lesson of the post-9/11 era is clear: counterterrorism operations abroad are not without flaws, but they have served a crucial purpose – disrupting and dismantling terror networks at their source. Fighting terrorists where they live helped to prevent attacks where we live. By scaling back these operations and underestimating the international threat, the West risks inviting history to repeat itself.
Extremism online
Domestically, the battleground has also shifted. Where once radicalisation occurred in physical spaces – hidden mosques or community hubs – it now thrives online. Social media platforms, encrypted messaging apps and online forums have become the new breeding grounds for extremist ideology. Yet governments in Europe and the U.S. remain hamstrung by a lack of cooperation from tech platforms, which operate with little accountability. Unlike other industries, these companies are not required to proactively report potential threats to law enforcement. This regulatory gap leaves us fighting blind, while extremists exploit the digital sphere with impunity.
The resurgence of al-Qaeda and ISIS is a global problem demanding a global response. It requires the West to, firstly, recommit to counterterrorism efforts abroad. Abandoning these missions leaves unchecked threats to fester and grow. The costs of action are high, but the costs of inaction are far greater. Secondly, we must prioritise domestic security with a focus on online radicalization. The recent terrorist attack in New Orleans emphasizes the urgent reality of how social media have become a powerful incubator for extremist ideology. Governments must enforce stricter oversight of tech platforms, mandating their cooperation in identifying and dismantling extremist networks.
Al-Qaeda now controls vast territory and is poised to seize Somalia in 2025 when African Union troops withdraw, while ISIS advances its entrenchment across Africa and beyond. Both groups are emboldened by the Taliban’s return to power, further destabilizing vulnerable regions and providing safe havens for training and operations. Their expansion in the Sahel and the ouster of the Assad regime, which they interpret as their own success, fuels a dangerous sense of victory in the milieu. Their narratives are fuelled by the chaos in the Middle East, and their capabilities have only expanded in the digital age.
We know how this story unfolds. The question is whether we will act now to rewrite the ending – or wait for another tragedy to force our hand.