Is there any hope for a democratic and peaceful Syria?

There is still no timetable for Syrian elections, not advisable to hold one's breath
CRGA
Aleppo 2017 - Poster of the Syrian and Russian leaders -- Assad and Putin

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Most observers will argue that a democratic and peaceful Syria is just a pipedream, but at least in the first weeks since Bashar-al-Assad’s rushed departure for Russia on December 8, there is little reason to predict failure on all counts. Sure, central government finances will be tight, and security will be questionable for a long time, but many of the institutions of the Syrian state, at least those based in Damascus, remain functional enough to start picking up the pieces across the country.

Regarding finances, the revelation in recent days by the Financial Times that Bashar-al-Assad’s team had airlifted about $250 million to Moscow over the period 2018-2019, while other relatives were busy purchasing real estate in Moscow, show the extent to which Assad’s regime went to set up an emergency family safety net and bypass western sanctions that locked them out of the global financial system.

Syria nevertheless did all that it could to generate cash in that environment and to assist Iran and other unsavory Middle East combatants; in retrospect, it probably should have directed more funds to pay its own army to prevent desertion. Barely a month ago (November 14), the U.S. Department of the Treasury sanctioned 26 companies, individuals, and vessels associated with the Al-Qatirji Company, a major Syrian conglomerate responsible for generating hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force (IRGC-QF) and the Houthis via the sale of Iranian oil to Syria and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). You can be sure Assad was taking a “reasonable” cut. Assad and his associates also made money from international drug trafficking and fuel smuggling, the Financial Times reported said, quoting U.S. officials.

Early contacts with the new rulers – a non-stop parade of diplomats

Whenever there is an unexpected case of regime change, it is not unusual to see a rush of new diplomatic contacts, if not a race for the airport. Syria was no exception. Syria is now filling up with “political tourists,” hoping to be done with their rushed one-day visits before the Christmas holidays. And again, after such a dramatic shift in power, the international media world was quickly filled with dozens of “instant Syria experts” most of whom are “instant” but in fact little more than ex-Syrians who speak a foreign language. Of course, in some countries that used to be enough to land somebody a ministerial position.

The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebel group that led the offensive that ousted Assad is being treated as the core of a provisional/transitional government, led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani. Emerging from jihadist roots, HTS has worked hard to rebrand itself as something like a nationalist force.  There is no timetable for elections at this point.

The United Nations special envoy for Syria was among those arriving in the Syrian capital, where he focused on “justice and accountability for crimes.” Geir Pedersen added, “…and we need to make sure that that goes through a credible justice system, and that we don’t see any revenge.” Pedersen later met Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, Syrian media reported.

A Qatari delegation also landed in Syria to meet transitional government officials and re-open its Damascus embassy, set for December 17.

Turkey, which holds considerable control in Syria’s northwest, reopened its Damascus embassy on December 14 after 12 years of closure.

A French diplomatic team was sent to Damascus on December 17 to reassume control of French embassy facilities as well as to establish initial contact with the new Syrian authorities.

Washington and London had previously designated HTS as a terrorist organization.  Accordingly, direct contacts are somewhat problematic if not legally prohibited but both countries are taking steps to reopen diplomatic channels. Both UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken have acknowledged that their countries were able to establish contacts with HTS officials. The UK has sent an emissary to Damascus and also announced a humanitarian aid package for the population.

More similar announcements are expected in the coming days.

Blinken on December 14 attended an emergency meeting in Jordan of foreign ministers from the Arab League, Turkey, and top officials from the European Union and United Nations which produced a joint statement of principles regarding Syria’s transition.

Addressing a European Parliament plenary session on Syria on December 17, EU High Representative/Vice-President Kaja Kallas indicated the EU was already assembling a humanitarian aid package (nothing new there) and reviewing a phased reduction of sanctions linked to progress by the new Syrian authorities in regards to reconciliation and democratization. And of course there will be a major conference on Syria’s transition, the usual for Brussels, since there has been one such European Parliament event held each year already focused on the diaspora and civil society.  Accordingly, one should expect a star studded “Syria Reconstruction Conference” in early 2025.  Key for the EU is avoiding a new outflow of Syrian refugees to Europe, with the hope that significant progress on the ground could eventually lead to refugee returns, the “Holy Grail” in most post-conflict stabilization programs.

Security situation unstable but not deteriorating

Life in Syria is far from normal with large chunks of territory under control for years by rebel groups. With Assad’s ouster, not all of these rebel groups have signed on to new arrangements, but at least there is a complex web of negotiations instead of open warfare in most cases.

The evacuation of the four declared Russian bases is an ongoing effort but at the present time it appears that only two of the four will see a total Russian departure. The two smaller bases in the east and northeast of the country are being closed but were of limited significance to the Kremlin, while the Hmeimim Air Base is essential to Russian force projection and support activity in Africa and the Middle East. All of the bases are reportedly experiencing food and water shortages.

As things stand, the Tartus Naval Base and Hmeimim Air Base are Russia’s main two military outposts outside the former Soviet Union and reports are circulating that a total of 3000 troops may be allowed to remain. Hmeimim is currently supporting the bulk of the departing Russian forces and diplomatic staff, by air. “There are no final decisions on this,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on December 16.

The situation in Syria’s north is complicated by the ongoing clashes between Turkish supported rebels alongside regular Turkish forces with Kurdish rebels to their east, unofficially supported by the U.S. and reportedly even Israel. For now, the separation line of the Euphrates River is holding, but in the town of Mambij, west of the river, there are ongoing clashes.  Turkey is unlikely to accept defeat in Mambij.

Israel’s conflict with Assad’s Syria has produced two separate military actions. In Syria’s south, a region close to the capital of Damascus, Israel has ordered troops into a UN-patrolled buffer zone separating Israeli and (former) Syrian forces on the Golan Heights, after the Syrian military deserted their posts. This operation was denounced by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and which the ever-helpful UN said violated a 1974 armistice. Israel has stated this step was temporary, to prevent Hezbollah (when fleeing Lebanon) and other terrorist groups from taking advantage of the vacuum caused by the Syrian army’s departure. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the step a “temporary defensive position until a suitable arrangement is found.”

Again calling on its unchallenged air superiority in the region, Israel launched a focused bombing campaign to destroy heavy weapons used by the former Assad regime all across Syria. Launching more than 350 strikes since Assad fell, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) claims it has destroyed around 80 percent of the Assad regime’s military capability (not independently verified). Syria’s stocks of chemical weapons have been of particular concern.

From a military perspective Jerusalem’s decision is unquestionably the correct move to prevent such weapons from falling into the hands of terrorist groups, but to many anti-Israel parties the move was something to be severely criticized. Of course, they will have better ideas for managing Syria’s heavy and chemical weapons.

 

 

 

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CEO/Editor-in-Chief.  Former US diplomat with previous assignments in Eastern Europe, the UN, SE Asia, Greece, across the Balkans, as well as Washington DC.

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