Heat wave melts 20% of Antarctica’s snow

New US report warns climate change could be a catastrophic national security threat

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In a clear sign of climate change, a nine-day heat wave has melted nearly a quarter of an Antarctic island’s snow cover earlier in January, CNN reported on 25 February, showing new images from NASA.
Antarctica reportedly experienced its hottest day on record earlier in February, peaking at 64.9 degrees Fahrenheit. Los Angeles measured the same temperature that day, NASA said.
In just over a week, 4 inches of Eagle Island’s snowpack melted — that’s about 20% of the island’s total seasonal snow accumulation, CNN cited NASA’s Earth Observatory as saying.
“Just to give you an idea, I have plotted the amount of meltwater reaching ocean from Peninsula as simulated by MAR forced by GFS. Although the absolute numbers need to be confirmed, the recent warm event was well the highest sea level contribution of this summer,” Climate scientist Xavier Fettweis tweeted.
The latest images come on the heels of a new report, warning that climate change could be a catastrophic national security threat.
The report “A Security Threat Assessment of Global Climate Change: How Likely Warming Scenarios Indicate a Catastrophic Security Future,” was released by the “National Security, Military and Intelligence Panel (NSMIP)” of the Center for Climate and Security on 24 February.
In the report, experts warn of High-to-Catastrophic threats to security from plausible climate change trajectories – the avoidance of which will require “quickly reducing and phasing out global greenhouse gas emissions,” the Center for Climate and Security said in press release posted on its website.
The panel, made up of national security, military and intelligence experts, analysed the globe through the lens of the US Geographic Combatant Commands, and concluded that even at scenarios of low warming, each region of the world will face severe risks to national and global security in the next three decades. “Higher levels of warming will pose catastrophic, and likely irreversible, global security risks over the course of the 21st century,” the report read.
The report is a first of its kind, bringing together a panel of security professionals to analyze the security implications of two future warming scenarios (near term: 1-2°C and medium-long term: 2-4+°C). It identifies major threats, including heightened social and political instability, and risks to U.S. military missions and infrastructure, as well as security institutions, at both warming scenarios and across all regions of the world.
A key finding of the report, is that near-term scenario of climate change, in which the world warms 1-2°C/1.8-3.6°F over pre-industrial levels by mid-century, would pose ‘High’ to ‘Very High’ security threats. A medium-to-long term scenario in which the world warms as high as 2-4+°C/3.6-7.2°F would pose a ‘Very High’ to ‘Catastrophic’ threat to global and national security. The world has already warmed to slightly below 1°C compared to pre-industrial temperatures.
At all levels of warming (1-4+°C/1.8-7.2+°F), climate change will pose significant and evolving threats to global security environments, infrastructure, and institutions.
While at lower warming thresholds, the most fragile parts of the world are the most at risk, all regions of the world will face serious implications. High warming scenarios could bring about catastrophic security impacts across the globe, the report read, noting that these threats could come about rapidly, destabilising the regions and relationships on which U.S. and international security depend.
“Climate change will present significant threats to US military missions across all of its geographic areas of responsibility (AORs), as well as to regional security institutions and infrastructure that are critical for maintaining global security,” the report read.
In order to mitigate these risks, the report calls for quickly reducing and phasing out global greenhouse gas emissions. “We call for the world to achieve net-zero global emissions as soon as possible in a manner that is ambitious, safe, equitable, and well-governed, in order to avoid severe and catastrophic security futures,” the report read.
“The world must also “climate-proof” environments, infrastructure, institutions, and systems on which human security depends, and so we call for rapidly building resilience to current and expected impacts of climate change. With future-oriented investments in adaptation, disaster response, and peacebuilding,” the experts recommend.
In the United States, the report calls for renewed efforts to prioritise, communicate, and respond to climate security threats, and to integrate these considerations across all security planning.
“It’s the job of the US intelligence community to anticipate risks to national security, and provide strategic warning to appropriate policymakers. The science has long been clear, and the security community is adding compelling analysis of the threats climate change pose to people and nations. It’s long past time for vigorous action to address them,” said Rod Schoonover, Advisory Board Member, Center for Climate and Security and Former director of Environment and Natural Resources at the National Intelligence Council (NIC).
Sherri Goodman, senior strategist at the Center for Climate and Security and former Deputy Undersecretary of Defense, said the assessment is clear – climate change is a pressing risk to national and global security, and will evolve to become a severe and systemic threat the more we allow global temperatures to rise. “Our Panel’s analysis shows that no region of the world will be left unaffected, and climate impacts will interact in dangerous ways in even near-term, lower levels of warming,” he said.
Ambassador Richard Kauzlarich, former National Intelligence Officer for Europe, stressed that the negative consequences of continued climate change across the next century will affect security institutions and infrastructure.  “We must recognize the resulting dire implications for global stability. Without leadership and swift action to prepare for and prevent these scenarios, American interests are at risk,” he said.
John Conger, director at the Center for Climate and Security and former principal deputy Under Secretary of Defense, recalled that during his time at the Department of Defense, he saw the US military take the threats posed by climate change seriously, in both its planning and operations. “But there is so much more to be done. If we don’t come together to mitigate this threat, soon, American interests and security are on the line,” he said.
Council on Strategic Risks CEO Christine Parthemore added, “We don’t always have the benefit of seeing clearly the security challenges that are coming our way. As this report shows, we know that the global risks of climate change will be serious—possibly catastrophic. We have a responsibility to act with urgency to address these threats.”
Finally, Kate Guy, principal investigator at the Center for Climate and Security, said he hopes these assessments will convince all decision-makers that we must act swiftly to avoid the worst of these threats to global security.

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